I study the dynamics of complex adaptive systems, focusing on the mechanisms of systemic fragility, resilience, and collapse. My work integrates principles from control theory, active inference, and computational modeling to develop frameworks for understanding and fostering active robustness in a variety of domains, from ecological and financial systems to complex organizations. My academic background is a bachelor's degree in mathematics and a master's degree in natural language processing.
Newest Book
Threshold Dialectics
Understanding Complex Systems and Enabling Active Robustness
A system breaks when the drifts we fail to see meet the reserves we thought we still possessed.
This book argues that systemic collapse is not primarily a scalar-threshold problem but a coupled-velocity problem. To anticipate failure, one must observe how fast a system's core adaptive capacities drift together, rather than watching their individual levels in isolation.
The framework is built on the dynamic interplay of three fundamental levers:
- Perception Gain (
g): The system's sensitivity to new evidence. - Policy Precision (
β): The confidence in its actions or beliefs. - Energetic Slack (
Fcrit): The reserve capacity to absorb shock and fuel adaptation.